Nairobi—16 August, 2011: Ahead of 18 August by-election, the battle for Kamukunji constituency is a three horse race pitting the PNU Alliance candidate Yusuf Hassan Abdi, ODM candidate Ibrahim Ahmed “Johnny” and Narc Kenya Brian Weke, says a poll released today.
Kamukunji By-Election: A Political Survey by Strategic Insight indicates that Yusuf Hassan Abdi leads with 37% against 30% of ODM’s Ibrahim Ahmed. Brian Otieno Weke of NARC-Kenya comes third with 18% while Catherine Muthoni of GNU follows with 7%. Other candidates jointly share 5% while 3% of the voters are undecided.
The survey gauges the general mood of respondents; the popularity of aspirants and competing parties; the factors guiding voters’ choice of potential aspirants and the qualities voters want for the candidate. Methodologically, it covered a sample size of 500 respondents drawn from all the seven Kamukunji wards, 51% of them males and 49% females with the bulk of the voters (67%) being young people aged below 39 years.
PNU Alliance is the most popular party with 41%, followed by ODM at 34%. NARC-K is third with 14% while GNU is behind with 5%. Other parties share 6%. The key issues affecting the electorate include roads and infrastructure (38%), security (18%), employment (16%), housing (14%), education (8%) and water & sanitation 6%.
Despite Kamukunji’s urban character, majority of the respondents will base their decision on ethnicity/ region of origin and clan affiliation. 63% of Somalis from North Eastern will vote for Yusuf and 31 % for Ibrahim. 49% of Muthoni’s supporters come from central while 22% of Weke’s supporters are from the Nyanza region. Consequently, the entry of Muthoni in Kamukunji race has weakened PNU’s and Yusuf’s support from the vote-rich GEMA community while Weke has weakened ODM’s and Ibrahim’s support from the Nyanza region.
Although PNU’s Yusuf Hassan has respectable command in Kamukunji, fortunes can turn in favour of either of the candidates if the “Kamba” swinging vote is well mobilized. Expected poor voter turn-out on the part of Central Kenya, increased vote for Otieno Weke and Muthoni as well as weak strategies to get the vote out and protect it will guarantee victory for the ODM candidate Ibrahim Ahmed. But PNU top leadership can also turn the tide in favour of PNU’s Yussuf by countering voter apathy among the section of Central Kenya (Kikuyu) vote apprehensive of lack of a strong Kikuyu candidate.
The survey reveals that the by-election is framed by the evolving battle for political supremacy in the 2012 election between PNU and ODM. This explains the line-up of candidates especially the choice of two candidates from the Somali Community by the rival parties viewed as efforts to win the hearts and minds of minority groups.
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Full Report: www strategicinsightafrica.org
For more information contact: Mahamed Fazul (Nairobi) +254 727 543 232
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